"roster churn" since Pete Carroll took over in 2010 Shaquem Griffin Color Rush Jersey , it’s just the names that are getting bigger. And after losing virtually all of their..." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteField Gullsa Seattle Seahawks communityLog In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsSeahawksOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections VideosCoffee and CigarettesGame AnalysisThe Numbers GameCigar ThoughtsSeahawks have major flexibility in 2020New,23commentsPDTShareTweetShareShareSeahawks have major flexibility in 2020Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsThe Seattle Seahawks have always been a team known for “roster churn” since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, it’s just the names that are getting bigger. And after losing virtually all of their stars from 2013 barring two — Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner — the question turns to how Seattle will respond after extending the former and keeping us guessing on the latter. Will they extend the 29-year-old Wagner or are they a bit more contract trigger shy following the disappointing returns on Kam Chancellor and others, which is what may have led to the departure of Earl Thomas.Regardless of the decision on Wagner though, the team has a ton of flexibility next year not just in terms of cap space, but in who will be occupying roster spots with so many more set to be free agents again.Among expected starters to become free agents are Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed, Germain Ifedi, Ezekiel Ansah, and Mike Iupati. Should he remain out of jail, Mychal Kendricks could also become a free agent after playing out a new one-year deal and if he does miss the season for legal reasons, he would remain with the team in 2020. Playing roles anywhere from regular snaps to starting are Jaron Brown, Barkevious Mingo, George Fant, Nick Vannett, Quinton Jefferson, Cassius Marsh, Akeem King, and Neiko Thorpe. Of course, not all of those players are even guaranteed a spot on the 53 next season, a picture that will become more clear in the next 2-3 months. C.J. Prosise and Joey Hunt will also be free agents from the 2016 draft class should they be on the roster.Regardless, they are not expected to be on the books for 2020 when free agency hits next March, barring improved play and an extension obviously.As of now, the Seahawks are expected to have over $76 million in cap space for 2020, second-most in the NFL after the Houston Texans, who just fired their GM. That amount of cap space will go up or down depending on the futures of Wagner, Reed, and some of their teammates, including some potential cuts. The most obvious of which could be Justin Britt who is due over $11 million in 2020, a raise of $4 million over 2019. It’s a big price tag for a center who is not considered elite and the team has taken shots at replacements recently with Hunt, Ethan Pocic, and the recently-signed Marcus Martin.Releasing Britt would raise Seattle’s cap space to $85 million absent any other changes to the cap. Other considerations will include K.J. Wright, who recently signed a two-year deal and represents an $8.5 million cap hit in 2020 if the team keeps him. That will depend on his health and productivity next season and while $8.5 million might not sound like a lot, it’s considerable bank on a 31-year-old outside linebacker in a 4-3. Justin Houston, of similar age to Wright and recently traded from a 3-4 to a 4-3 in Indianapolis Bradley McDougald Color Rush Jersey , is set to make $9 million with the Colts in 2020.The team would save $6 million if it released Wright next year. They’d save another $3.4 million if Ed Dickson was released and I’ve kept alive the conversation all year long that Dickson could be a cap casualty this fall. I’m willing to backtrack on that a little bit if only because I’m now thinking that the Seahawks could be keen to keep four tight ends again: Dickson, Vannett, Will Dissly, and Jacob Hollister. They’d also have Fant as a fifth option for three-tight end sets. Then next year they could let Vannett walk, as they did Jimmy Graham and Luke Willson, release Dickson, and move forward with Dissly, Hollister, and whoever comes in next. Finally, the team would save another $3 million if D.J. Fluker loses his job as a starting guard to Phil Haynes, Pocic, or someone else.Theoretically, you could get the 2020 Seahawks to near $100 million in cap space with little effort, but then you have to start wondering how talented a team is with Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Duane Brown, Bradley McDougald, and cap space. That money will be used and it’ll start to be siphoned off quickly:Wagner is the NFL’s highest paid inside linebacker this season — yes, he’s making $1 million more than C.J. Mosley, who just shattered the APY value for inside linebackers. A new contract for Wagner could put him around $15 million for 2020 and that should leave the team with at least $60 million to spend for next season’s payroll. There’s also the chance that the team drafted Cody Barton and Ben Burr-Kirven with the hope that like Frank Clark, they can avoid major deals and will instead look to franchise Wagner. That being said, Wagner is only 29 and there’s perhaps more evidence that an inside linebacker can be highly effective until his mid-30s, at least. A third contract for Wagner makes more sense than a third contract for most players, especially given the amount of money that Seattle has to spend.Meanwhile, Reed presents a more apt comparison to the tag-and-trade of Clark. Reed is 26 now and teams would have more incentive to use a draft pick on him in trade than they would a 30-year-old Wagner in a year. Reed may also be way more expensive: Mosley will make $17 million as the NFL’s highest paid inside backer in 2020. The two highest paid 4-3 defensive tackles are set to make $22 million each in 2020 (the Marcell Dareus deal included, which is unlikely to actually be used), followed by $18 million in third place. If Reed puts together another 10-sack season, he’ll join the club. The Seahawks may not like the risk of signing a pass-rushing defensive tackle to a $90 million+ deal. Consider that Dareus signed a $95 million deal with the Buffalo Bills in 2015 and he just seems to be worse and worse with each successive season. Or the up-and-down perception of Kawann Short. Seattle may not want to extend Reed unless he bets against himself and takes a team-friendly deal, which I don’t expect. I could see the Seahawks tagging him and exploring trade options because the Clark trade worked out about as perfect as possible for the team, assuming that he doesn’t just rip up the league for the next four years and Seattle’s draft picks just fall flat. That being said, I couldn’t even write this article if they had extended Clark and tuned their future cap decisions to his deal.Most of their other free agents are veterans and not likely to be around for long after 2019, if at all. It’s wait-and-see with Ansah, Fant, Ifedi, Vannett Brett Hundley Color Rush Jersey , and King, among others. There’s no reason that the team can’t sign both Wagner and Reed, and I expect Wagner to be the higher priority not just in spite of his age and cost, but because of it. Reed might be younger but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s got more great years ahead of him than Wagner and in fact he could be a bigger risk since we’ve only seen that one elite year from Reed so far. Given that defensive tackles can also take up large chunks of cap and I wonder if the team will be entertaining trade offers even sooner than we think.If they want to extend him though, the opportunity is there. There’s a lot of opportunity, and even more change, ahead. I wrote earlier this season that Bradley McDougald was having an All-Pro year. It’s certainly at a Pro-Bowl level; though winning that popularity contest for the underrated talent will prove tough. McDougald was incredible versus the Carolina Panthers, continuing his incredible year. In fact, I can only recall two bad McDougald plays this season. Both were tricky situations.Facing the Packers, McDougald lost at the line of scrimmage to Robert Tonyan yet managed to stay in phase with the tight end for an eternity downfield. Aaron Rodgers made a play that just a select few can, rolling right and lobbing a precise 54-yard deep ball right to his receiver for the touchdown.The other negative play came in Carolina from a brutally difficult assignment on Christian McCaffrey’s option route. Deep safety Tedric Thompson’s lunging tackle attempt, not showing a good short stride or aiming point, made this play far worse:But back to the subject of this article: McDougald was incredible last Sunday other than being beat by the quickness of McCaffrey on one occasion. He brought his man down in space, doing just enough to contain him on a day where the offensive star exploded in a career-high supernova.Evoking Kam ChancellorSeattle’s new safety tandem gets compared to the hall of fame duet Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas performed. That’s unfair on so many levels, but inevitable given the recent memories of that pair’s greatness. Yet McDougald managed to evoke Chancellor at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers had the ball on the Seahawks’ 3-yard line and faced a 3rd and 1. Having failed in going for it on their first drive in a fourth down near the goalline, the scores are still tied at 0-0. Seattle’s defense this season has been excellent in third and short, ranking second in the league in conversions given up:Carolina’s jumbo formation saw the Seahawks respond with a goalline defense that had safeties Delano Hill and McDougald as the force defenders. The Panthers motioned their tight end away from the play, attempting to cause alignment issues, then ran an outside zone to the weakside. Nazair Jones, aligned at 3-technique, was the initial wrecker on this play. Responsible for what looked like the playside b gap, he squeezed inside through the playside a gap right into the backfield. Bobby Wagner, the run-through player at middle linebacker, took the b gap responsibility. It’s part of Seattle’s spill and then force philosophy. This has defensive linemen stepping inside to spill and play through their linemen, then linebackers flowing over the top of blocks to turnback the runner. The initial penetration would have caused McCaffrey to bounce the ball further outside.However, the exceptional play of McDougald prevented any bouncing. Taking on the fold block of right tackle Taylor Moton, McDougald does something never thought possible after the days of Chancellor. Getting lower than the offensive lineman, McDougald exploded upwards with a block destruct shoulder strike that propelled the 6-5, 325lb blocker backwards into McCaffrey. (McDougald is 6ft 1, 215lb!) Simultaneously, McDougald managed to stay in great outside-in leverage. The Seahawks talk about their safeties in this alignment against stretch plays “earholing” their man and being the “pure edge setter”. This was exactly that from McDougald, though instead of having to take on a fullback he rocked a tackle. As Jones contacted McCaffrey’s ankle, McCaffrey’s point of attack got smacked back into him and the runner was dropped for a loss. Carolina was forced to settle for a field goal on this occasion; Seattle’s defense showed why it is so tricky to convert 3rd and short against.“Everything I know is a lie” Cam Newton (possibly)If you play the latest Madden video game, under cover 3 beaters it’ll probably list “four verts” as a “cover 3-beater”. I wouldn’t know, because I despise how the next-gen Madden games play after they were wrecked by exclusive rights Richard Sherman Color Rush Jersey , the frostbite engine and an ultimate team focus—but that’s another article for a different day. (It doesn’t help that I now suck at video games but please don’t tell anyone else that)The point is, running four vertical routes is a standard cover 3 beater. That’s football 101. It’s why Nick Saban devised his rip-liz matching, which essentially turns into a four-deep coverage when faced with the route combination. It’s what made McDougald’s play on the ball so impressive initially.Carolina struggled massively inside the Seahawks’ redzone; they had 7 trips inside the 20 and came away with only 23 points. Following a highly questionable defensive pass interference call on Tre Flowers, Newton saw a clear single-high safety and decided to attack.The coverage that looked like a blatantly bland cover 3 wasn’t quite that. As Thompson cheated his deep middle third shell over to the boundary seam route, Newton’s excitement must have grown as he executed the run fake to McCaffrey. His other seam was bound to be open, right?Wrong. Thompson’s shading of roughly 60/40 to Greg Olsen’s seam was by design of a matching coverage Pete Carroll runs out of his over front (called Boston). In this coverage, Thompson’s deep middle third shell has a seam alert, meaning he’s assigned Olsen’s route primarily. Dropping back in his “soft sky” hook zone, McDougald quickly diagnosed Newton’s downfield intentions and carried the seam route from tight end Chris Manhertz deep. Not dissimilar to rip-liz itself, it’s Carroll’s soft version. For that reason, it’s a common call against 2x2 receiver alignments as it takes away four verts—even with a play-fake.Seattle Seahawks Over Zone Y (Boston)Found on Zach S. Dunn’s twitterHere’s how it looked on McDougald’s pick:Newton released what he thought was sure to be a touchdown, expecting McDougald to stop in a buzz/hook-curl zone. Instead, McDougald continued and attacked the football. He leapt, raising his near arm to high-point the pass. After softly cushioning the weight of his own deflection, McDougald then secured the ball with a two-handed clasp. What a staggering turnover! It was Seattle’s first in four games, coming at a crucial time with the Seahawks only down by 3. Having flashed his skills playing the run, McDougald showcased his ability covering the pass. He continues to provide valuable versatility. The Wave TechniqueIt was hard not to notice McDougald’s frantic waving and jumping on that lovely, fantastic, brilliant Graham Gano 52-yard miss. Sure, it’s amusing to jokingly overstate the potential impact of the wave. BUT, it may have affected Gano. It’s fun to think this whatever the case:Pro-Bowl, at LeastI mentioned in the introduction that the Pro-Bowl is largely a popularity contest. For this reason, McDougald will likely miss out on an honor he thoroughly deserves. His best bet to gain the attention of voters is to keep intercepting the football. McDougald has three picks; the leader amongst safeties is Damonte Kazee with six; D.J. Swearinger, Shawn Williams and Eddie Jackson have four each.Pro-Bowler or not, once more I’m left marvelling at the fantastic business John Schneider did this past offseason. McDougald’s deal has two years to run after 2017, where the cost against the cap is $4,733,333 and $5,433,334 respectively. McDougald, at this level of play, has every right to be asking for more money at the end of the season. Given Seattle’s leverage, they can afford to stick firm and enjoy his value for another season at least. Thanks to Beast Pode contributor and online friend @cmikesspinmove for more valuable schematic conversations.