a raw deal this year. Sure https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Jamaal-Williams-Jersey , his style is stale and you probably can’t win a Super Bowl with him any more, but around two-thirds of NFL coaches are still hilariously incompetent. It’s kind of sad because the Green Bay Packers’ offense has actually shown some innovation of late, and it has served to expose some of the problems with Aaron Rodgers — which is disconcerting in its own right.I used to complain of receivers never being schemed open. This season, Mac has schemed guys open. I’ve complained of his run/pass balance and his aggressiveness. He’s actually very aggressive, and he passes more than just about anyone. I complained about Aaron Jones, and he started playing Aaron Jones. No one can say Mac hasn’t put in the effort.BUTMac has a problem that he can’t overcome. Mac can’t help but tell the defense what he’s doing. Yes, he has schemed guys open, with cool crossing routes, tight formations, and even some pre-snap motion. That’s great. But, when we run into a high-stakes situation, it’s the same old Mac. So it was this past weekend on 4th and short when Mac called a power run into the teeth of a power run defense. It didn’t work.Predictability undermines any attempt at deception, and one of the key areas where you need deception is during play-action. Play-action is a funny thing because it’s been a part of football since the forward pass was invented, but no one really understood why it worked until pretty recently.Most coaches and analysts were wrong about play action for like a century, and when you think about that fact, it’s kind of mind-boggling. In the old days of football, deception was the rule, not the exception, and play action is, at its heart, a very old kind of deception. Paul Johnson retired recently. Johnson was the coach of Georgia Tech, one of, if not, the last major conference team to run some kind of option as their primary offense. I don’t watch much college football, but I gravitate towards weird offenses, and I love watching option football. It’s great, and you should watch it too while you still can. Option football was at one point very common at all levels, and option football is premised on deception. The quarterback is responsible for reading a defense Dean Lowry Jersey , selecting the proper ball-carrier, and carrying out the play as if he has the ball, whether he does or not. Option football is premised, fundamentally, on the idea the it will be difficult for the defense to diagnose who has the ball, and it’s success is based largely on proper reads, and that deception. More importantly, that deception is not based on anything that has happened on previous plays. On any play, an option quarterback could give the ball to any back, or keep it himself based on his diagnosis of the defense. If a defender believes the quarterback handed the ball off, he’ll chase the ball-carrier. It’s really as simple as that. The defender doesn’t care if that back was the ball-carrier last play, or if they were successful. The only important fact, in the moment, is the belief that a specific player has the ball.This may all sound stupidly obvious except for the fact that the popular opinion on play action is that the ability to run play-action is predicated on the ability to run the ball successfully. The theory holds that defenders will be fooled more easily if the offense has established that running is a threat. That sounds like a good theory until you think about it a little more in the context of how defenses react to deception. A defender, after all, isn’t going to just ignore a back who might have the ball because that back hasn’t succeeded yet. A defender will chase, and hit that back if they believe he has the ball. Play action is just like an option in this way. The only thing you have to do is trick a few defenders into thinking the ball is somewhere else, and plenty of research has shown that “establishing the run” doesn’t matter a lick.The PackersThis brings us back to the Packers and their predictable, predictable ways. You see, the Packers are one of the worst play-action teams in football, despite the fact that they are the second-best running team in football, and despite the fact that they feature an all-world quarterback.And there is only one reason that a team is poor on a “deception play:” They are lousy at deceiving people, or, in other words, predictable. What do I mean? Well, when they run play-action, they鈥endTo throwDownfieldOnEarly downs.The Rams run play action on 37% of passing plays, and they’re great when doing so Kentrell Brice Color Rush Jersey , averaging 9.8 yards per play. For the Rams, that is two yards better than a normal play. The Packers run play action 22% of the time, and actually average .9 yards less per play when doing so. The Rams use this tactic as a staple of their under-center passes, whereas for the Packers, it’s a predictable play they run in certain predictable scenarios, used to set up predictable passes. With a different philosophy, perhaps with a focus on YAC over bombs, play action could (and should) be a real weapon for Green Bay, but while they meet every old-school qualification for a good play-action team, the fact of the matter is they’re lousy at actually deceiving anyone. Over two weeks, Acme Packing Company will break down the Green Bay Packers’ 2018 roster position-by-position, providing our grades for each spot and looking ahead to free agency. Today, we continue with the offensive line.Compared to the previous seasons, the Packers offensive line took a step backwards this year. Byron Bell and Lane Taylor’s below average play along with Bryan Bulaga playing through nagging injuries attributed to the step back.Brian Gutekunst should stay patient with the two as Taylor and Bulaga are prime bounce back candidates in 2019. The Packers have starters David Bahktiari (2 years), Lane Taylor (2 years), Corey Linsley (2 years) and Bryan Bulaga (1 year) all under contract and I doubt we will see any changes coming from that group. There could be a surprise money-saving cut with Bulaga but, with a fairly weak free agent class, I don’t see that as an option unless Gutekunst is 100% confident in Jason Spriggs (1 year remaining) or a draft pick as replacements.The Packers do have a hole at right guard and may look internally to fill that void. Anthony Coyle, Gerhard de Beer, Alex Light, and Nico Siragusa are all under contract for 2019. Just from his playing time in 2018, I would guess that Light would have the inside track from those names but a more likely name could be in the list of Exclusive Rights Free Agents listed below. Let’s take a look at what decisions the Packers need to make along the offensive line.Byron Bell - Guard/TackleNFL Experience: 8 yearsFA Status: UnrestrictedExpiring Contract: 1 year, $1.7 million2018 Stats: 12 games played, 9 games started at right guardI’ll start off with a positive about Byron Bell. After my initial dislike of the move, I’m glad the Packers brought him in this season. While his play was not very good, his versatility to play guard or tackle was valuable. I think having him struggle could be a blessing in disguise as I’d rather have him play badly on a one year contract than ruin the confidence of a younger player by throwing them into the fire before they are ready. Now on to the bad. Bell started at right guard for nine games and it was nine games too many. He came into the season as a backup with a good amount of experience so I felt he might be good if he was needed in limited quantities. He ended up taking over the right guard spot after Justin McCray’s shoulder injury in week three and never gave the position back until he was put on injured reserve in mid December. For nine games Bell struggled and didn’t give the Packers or any of the fans a reason to feel confident in him going forward. The Packers should definitely pass on re-signing Bell. Pro Football Focus rated him as the 73rd-best guard out of 80 qualifiers this season. He was top ten in quarterback pressures given up and just couldn’t seem to gel with the Packers offense overall.On top of that, Bell is over 30 years old and, if Brian Gutekunst stays true to the previous regime’s history of letting offensive linemen go after 30 https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Geronimo-Allison-Jersey , there won’t be a place for him. It’s time to give the young guys a shot or possibly even making a high draft pick on a lineman to fill the right guard void. Justin McCray - GuardNFL Experience: 2 yearsFA Status: Exclusive Rights Expiring Contract: 1 year, $555,0002018 Stats: 12 games played, 5 games started at right guardJustin McCray had a very positive 2017 season and the Packers rewarded his good play with the right guard spot in 2018. However, fate had another result for McCray in 2018. McCray looked decent in the first three games of the season but he wound up with a shoulder injury during the Washington game in week three. Byron Bell took over and McCray never played his way back on the field until Bell went to injured reserve late in the season.The biggest thing to look for in that situation is this: Was the shoulder injury just too much for him to overcome getting his spot back or was he not able to beat out Bell in practice? If McCray’s shoulder was the issue, there isn’t too much to be worried about. Shoulder injuries take a lot time to recover from and they are hard to play through even with the smallest of injuries, especially on the offensive line. Now, if his shoulder was fine and he just couldn’t beat out Byron Bell to get his spot back, then we have an issue. As I’ve mentioned, Bell struggled mightily this year and if McCray couldn’t impress the coaches enough to get back on the field, it might be time to move on from him. An important part of bringing McCray back next season is that he’s not going to cost a lot of money. With that, he will probably come back next year. His potential from 2017 gives him a second chance from a bad season this year. He’ll have a chance to get the right guard spot back and if not, he will at least be a solid back if he’s healthy.Lucas Patrick - Guard/CenterNFL Experience: 2 yearsFA Status: Exclusive Rights Expiring Contract: 1 year, $555,0002018 Stats: 14 games played, 4 games started (2 games at left guard, 2 games at right guard)Lucas Patrick is building himself into a solid player. He’s the perfect type of blue collar player that works in Green Bay. He started out on the practice squad and keeps moving up the depth chart each year. This past season he ended up being one of the top reserves for the interior of the offensive line. Patrick was vital in getting solid play when Lane Taylor and Byron Bell struggled with injuries. He ended up starting two games at each guard spot and played well with his opportunity. Patrick still needs to shore up his run blocking and pass protection before he gets a full time starting job but he will be in play for the starting right guard spot in 2019 if the Packers keep him around.With that, Patrick is in the same boat as McCray. He’s not going to cost a lot of money and he keeps improving his game each year. So, he definitely should be back next year and will compete for that starting right guard spot. He actually reminds me a lot of the career path of TJ Lang. Started off low on the depth chart and kept grinding away and improving year after year until he started getting playing time. Hopefully, Patrick turns into the type of blocker Lang was for the Packers too. Adam Pankey NFL Experience: 2 years (1 accrued season for free agency)FA Status: Exclusive RightsExpiring Contract: 1 year, $550,0002018 Stats: 1 game playedAdam Pankey is another intriguing young player for the Packers. He was promoted from the practice squad on December 8th and only got limited snaps in the Falcons game this season. With Pankey being on the practice squad most of the last year, he fits the mold of most Packer reserves from the offensive line. They are low draft picks or undrafted free agents that were molded carefully and patiently by offensive line coach James Campen. With Adam Stenavich taking over for Campen, Pankey will need to impress to make the team. He doesn’t have much tape to give Stenavich a look at what he can do but he versatility to play both guard and tackle are important. He actually has a similar career path of Lucas Patrick so far and should be in the plans for 2019. Will he compete for a starting spot? Possibly but doubtful. He’ll would need to jump ahead of a few more established players but, at minimum, he should give some depth and potential for the Packers moving forward.